The growth rate of prices in Russia in August will amount to 6.4% in annual terms, follows from the consensus forecast compiled by RIA Novosti based on a survey of analysts.
According to Rosstat, annual inflation in the country against the background of a weakening ruble and rising prices for some food and raw materials in the world is accelerating since last year, in June the rate of price growth jumped to a maximum since 2016 – 6.5%. However, in July there was already a slight slowdown in inflation – to 6.46%.
In July, the Bank of Russia raised its inflation forecast for the current year to 5.7-6.2% from 4.7-5.2%, and at the end of 2022 – to 4-4.5% from the previous 4%.
Inflation factors
The seasonal decline in the cost of fruits and vegetables in Russia, as well as the downward trend in prices on commodity markets in the world will help slow inflation in August. However, the still rising prices for non-food products and gasoline, as well as the current restrictions on international tourism, will not allow disinflationary factors to fully manifest themselves, analysts say.
“The main factors behind the lower inflation will be the seasonal continuation of the fall in prices for food and hospitality services. In addition, we expect that, following the decrease in the severity of price growth in these segments, in August, the normalization of the price environment in problem segments of non-food products – building materials and cars – will begin. against the background of the normalization of the level of demand and the growth of supply “, – said the senior economist at VTB Capital Alexander Isakov.
Increased inflation will remain in the non-food segment, Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa-Bank, disagreed. “This is facilitated by heightened inflation expectations and the price increases discussed in the past months for a number of goods, in particular for office supplies,” she explained, adding that prices for some products, such as meat products, will also continue to rise.
Cars near the Gazpromneft gas station in Moscow – RIA Novosti, 1920, 08/09/2021
The still partially closed air service with Europe, Thailand and a number of other tourist countries means high expenses within Russia, which is a factor in favor of the growth of domestic prices, said Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst at Sovcombank. The opening of flights with Turkey and Egypt, as well as a stable ruble exchange rate, should have a restraining effect on inflation.
The end of the active phase of the tourist season in Russia will help to normalize the situation with prices for services, says Evgeny Loktyukhov, head of the department of economic and industrial analysis of Promsvyazbank. In addition, there is a slight slowdown in activity in the economy after reaching pre-crisis levels – this can cool consumer sentiment and lead to a decrease in price pressure, said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.
“At the same time, the inflationary picture remains complex – prices for non-food products remain under the negative influence of the extremely high cost of freight and expensive fuel. Therefore, we expect the start of a distinct slowdown in annual inflation rates only in the fall, when the effect of the high base of last year is likely to take effect,” he concluded. Loktyukhov.