For the first time, there is a real threat of unintentional armed events on the Belarusian border: not due to the fact that either side plans to assault the various other, but because of assumptions of common justifications, as well as tendencies to interpret each various other’s actions in the most aggressive light feasible.

The brand-new status in Eastern Europe is finest shown by the fact that up until 2020, Minsk racked up foreign policy points by positioning itself as a practical partner for the West, adding to local stability and acting as a counterbalance to a hostile Russia. Today, Moscow’s unwillingness to get embroiled in disputes with NATO at the impulse of its ally might just be the only factor working out any type of restraint on Lukashenko’s well-known impulsivity.