The Biden landslide foreshadowed by the polls did not happen. Biden was supposed to sweep through red America and scoop up well over 350 electoral votes — even over 400 if the planets aligned.
Along the way, his coattails were going to carry up to a dozen new Democrats into the House, and five or more into the Senate. Statehouses, too, were supposed to fall to the Democrats, who then would be in a position to reverse the last decade of extreme Republican gerrymandering of congressional districts. None of that happened.
But make no mistake — the 2020 election was a repudiation of the president. Biden appears to be on course to win more electoral votes — 306 — than George W. Bush collected in his two victories, and precisely the same number as Trump did in 2016. He looks likely to flip two red states, in addition to three more states that Trump won last time. He already has the highest popular vote in U.S. history.
Yet… yet… he did not crush Trump. It was not a thumping landslide, and down-ballot Republicans were not wiped out. If Trump had been, it’s possible or even probable that the GOP would have done everything it could to pretend like he never happened. In this scenario, Biden’s promise of a return to a more civil bipartisan discourse might have had some traction, at least for a honeymoon.
In hindsight, Trump showed himself to be a far more effective campaigner than almost anyone gave him credit for. He achieved his main campaign aim — unearthing many more votes in his base. He also turned out to have surprising versatility. A new Trumpism emerged that — while still very much an ideological appeal to a “real” White America worth making great again — is more racially complicated. Trump raised his support from Black Americans, receiving 8% of the vote, at least two points better than in 2016.
More importantly, just as in 2016 Trump discovered a hidden population who felt “left behind” and turned them into a sneak attack on Hillary Clinton, in 2020 he unearthed a thick reservoir of pro-Republican Latinos, whose votes helped him keep Florida and Texas. In all, Trump won a whopping 35% of the so-called Latino vote, according to AP VoteCast. That group of voters — which is really many groups, not one — is likely to be a pillar of a 2024 Trumpist run, should he decide to make it.
Behind the scenes, Trump would be the chief hectorer on behalf of a Republican base that still wants more than anything to “own the libs.”
Biden seems unlikely to change the bitter collide between red and blue America, even if the White House becomes a comparatively more civil place. Plenty of Americans, encouraged and goaded by Trump, will resist and not be shy about showing Biden that, in their view, he is not their president. Amid the rubble of the down-ballot elections, Democrats still have a chance to win control of the Senate, and salvage a productive Biden presidency, if they can prevail in two Georgia runoff elections for U.S. seats on January 5.
Short of that, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell — not Joe Biden — may become the most powerful elected person in Washington, D.C. During President Obama’s two terms, McConnell established a record of gleefully stymying Democratic priorities and waiting for a chance to maximize his own agenda. Just for starters under Biden, McConnell plans to refuse to confirm any cabinet nominees who he regards as “radical progressives,” according to a report at Axios.
Behind the scenes, however, Trump would be the chief hectorer on behalf of a Republican base that still wants more than anything to “own the libs.” From Mar-a-Lago, Trump, buttressed by his 88 million Twitter followers, will probably begin to consider how to orchestrate a 2022 midterm in which his chosen Republican candidates could vie for more House and Senate seats. All of it leading to a 2024 cycle in which Trump or his anointed successor seem likely to start out as the leading candidate.
Jackson ended his eight years in power as an iconic figure in the Democratic Party and the country at large. Jacksonville, Florida, 22 counties across the country, and countless high schools are among the remnants of his time in office, even as statues of him get demoted to plaques. Are we headed for a future of Trumpvilles? Dumm, the Amherst professor, has his doubts. “There might be high schools,” he said. “I don’t know about towns.”